Growth differentiation factor-15 and prediction of cancer-associated thrombosis and mortality: a prospective cohort study

Background Patients with cancer are at increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and arterial thromboembolic/thrombotic events (ATEs). Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) improves cardiovascular risk assessment, but its predictive utility in patients with cancer remains undefined. Objectives To investigate the association of GDF-15 with the risks of VTE, ATE, and mortality in patients with cancer and its predictive utility alongside established models. Methods The Vienna Cancer and Thrombosis Study (CATS)—a prospective, observational cohort study of patients with newly diagnosed or recurrent cancer—which was followed for 2 years, served as the study framework. Serum GDF-15 levels at study inclusion were measured, and any association with VTE, ATE, and death was determined using competing risk (VTE/ATE) or Cox regression (death) modeling. The added value of GDF-15 to established VTE risk prediction models was assessed using the Khorana and Vienna CATScore. Results Among 1531 included patients with cancer (median age, 62 years; 53% men), median GDF-15 levels were 1004 ng/L (IQR, 654-1750). Increasing levels of GDF-15 were associated with the increased risks of VTE, ATE, and all-cause death ([subdistribution] hazard ratio per doubling, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.03-1.32], 1.30 [95% CI, 1.11-1.53], and 1.57 [95% CI, 1.46-1.69], respectively). After adjustment for clinically relevant covariates, the association only prevailed for all-cause death (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.10-1.33) and GDF-15 did not improve the performance of the Khorana or Vienna CATScore. Conclusion GDF-15 is strongly associated with survival in patients with cancer, independent of the established risk factors. While an association with ATE and VTE was identified in univariable analysis, GDF-15 was not independently associated with these outcomes and failed to improve established VTE prediction models.