Continuous allocation of carbon emission quota considering different paths to carbon peak: Based on multi-objective optimization

The setting of China's peaking target by 2030 for total CO2 emissions places stricter requirements on low-carbon production in each province. The allowable CO2 emissions will become a limited resource in the future which need to be allocated properly. In this paper, a multi-objective optimization method is used to realize the continuous allocation of carbon emission quota (CEQ) of each province from 2020 to 2030 under two different peaking paths by comprehensively considering three objectives of cost, efficiency, and fairness. In addition, the 30 provinces are divided into 4 groups and the distribution results were compared within and between groups. The results show that: (1) provinces with larger historical carbon emissions will be allocated more CEQ, while provinces with smaller carbon emissions will achieve peak carbon earlier, and the key to controlling total carbon emissions lies in the five provinces (Guangdong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong) in Group 2; (2) the peak scenario and CEQ allocation scheme corresponding to path 2 will be more consistent with the future development requirements of China's energy, economy and environment; (3) Multi-objective is necessary and the continuous CEQ allocation scheme will be significant for guiding provinces to arrange future annual production plan.