Psychological characteristics and future success: A prospective study examining youth soccer players at different stages within the German talent development pathway

In soccer substantial work has been invested to identify factors predicting future performance and success. As it concerns psychological characteristics, quantitatively and qualitatively limited research restricts insights on potential differences due to moderating variables such as players’ age and developmental stage within the talent pathway. Thus, the purpose of this study was to extend the empirical evidence on psychological characteristics by (a) validating the prognostic power of potential talent predictors for adult success in U17 “elite promotion” stage players and by (b) comparing these results to the group of U12 “talent development” stage players of the former study by Höner and Feichtinger using the same methodological approach. For both, an online survey was utilized to assess psychological variables across the domains of motivation, volition, self-concept, and emotions. Further, players’ performance level was determined four years after the assessment (i.e., U12 success criteria: admission to youth academy; U17 success criteria: achieving professional status). The statistical analyses revealed notable differences in the expression and prognostic value of psychological characteristics between the two samples. Among U17 players, dysfunctional (e.g., fear of failure, competitive anxiety) and functional attributes (e.g., hope for success, ego-orientation, competitiveness) significantly predicted individuals’ professional status. The results are discussed within the light of potential environmental demands which may influence the role of psychological dispositions and skills throughout talent development. Additionally, the significance of reliable assessments for applied practice is highlighted regarding sport psychological diagnostics and interventions.Lay summary: To optimally support talent development in soccer, researchers and practitioners seek to understand factors which facilitate players’ successful progression through talent pathways up to a professional level. The current study highlights psychological characteristics (e.g., hope for success, competitiveness) which predict future performance and should thus be nourished in young players.