Utility of non-invasive liver fibrosis markers to predict the incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD): A systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) share common risk factors and pathogenesis mechanisms. However, the association between the degree of liver fibrosis and the incidence of CKD remains unclear. This study aims to examine the utility of non-invasive fibrosis markers to predict the occurrence of CKD. Cochrane Library, Scopus, and Medline were searched up to May 20th, 2023 using combined keywords. Literature that analyzes FIB-4, NFS, and APRI to predict CKD incidence was included in this review. We used random-effect models of odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to express the outcomes in this review. Twenty-one studies were included. Our meta-analysis showed that high FIB-4 was associated with a higher incidence of CKD (OR 2.51; 95%CI: 1.87–3.37, p < 0.00001, I2 = 96%). Further regression analysis revealed that this association was significantly influenced by hypertension (p = 0.0241), NAFLD (p = 0.0029), and body mass index (BMI) (p = 0.0025). Our meta-analysis also showed that high NFS (OR 2.49; 95%CI: 1.89–3.30, p < 0.00001, I2 = 96%) and high APRI (OR 1.40; 95%CI: 1.14–1.72, p = 0.001, I2 = 26%) were associated with a higher incidence of CKD. This study suggests that these non-invasive liver fibrosis markers can be routinely measured both in NAFLD patients and the general population to enable better risk stratification and early detection of CKD.