How urban ecological land affects resident heat exposure: Evidence from the mega-urban agglomeration in China

Resident heat exposure (RHE) is becoming more severe in the coming decades owing to rapid urbanization and climate change. Urban ecological land (UEL) provides important ecosystem services, such as mitigating the urban heat islands effect. However, the impacts of UEL on RHE remain poorly understood. This study quantifies the effects of UEL and its interaction with the natural-anthropogenic environment on RHE in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, a mega-urban agglomeration in China. The results showed a tight spatial–temporal coupling between the UEL and RHE: UEL transitioned from degradation-fragmentation in 2000–2010 to recovery-agglomeration in 2010–2020, while the RHE distribution evolved from intensification-expansion-inequity to mitigation-contraction-equity. The average explanatory power (q value) of UEL and its structure on RHE also increased by 75.99% and 70.79%, respectively. UEL patch diversity gradually dominated the RHE distribution, and the spatial marginal effect of UEL dominance increased by 234.97%. Moreover, RHE shifted from being dominated by UEL and anthropogenic heat emissions interactions to being jointly driven by UEL and natural-anthropogenic factors (especially the interaction of patch fragmentation with topography and built-up land expansion). The results of this study provide valuable information for nature-based (i.e., UEL) landscape planning and management to develop “human-centric” RHE mitigation strategies.