Prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with exertional heatstroke: a 13-year retrospective study

Hyperactivity of coagulation is common in exertional heatstroke (EHS). Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) is the most severe form of coagulation dysfunction and associated with poor outcome. DIC, temperature and Glasgow coma scale score were identified as independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality by multivariate logistic regression analysis, and we developed a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in a 13-year EHS patient cohort. The nomogram was assessed by calibration curves and bootstrap with 1,000 resamples. The receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed, and the area under the curve (AUC) was compared. Two hundred and ten patients were included. The in-hospital mortality was 9.0%, and the incidence of DIC was 17.6%. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.897 (95% CI 0.848–0.935, p < .0001) and was non-inferior to SOFA and APACHE II scores but superior to SIRS score, which were widely-used score systems of disease severity. The nomogram contributed to the adverse outcome prediction of EHS.