Habitat Suitability of Danaus genutia Based on the Optimized MaxEnt Model

Danaus genutia, commonly known as the tiger butterfly, is a visually appealing species in the Danaidae family. As it is not currently classified as endangered, it is excluded from key protected species lists at national and local levels, limiting focus on its population and habitat status, which may result in it being overlooked in local butterfly conservation initiatives. Yunnan, characterized by high butterfly diversity, presents an ideal region for studying habitat suitability for D. genutia, which may support the conservation of regional biodiversity. This study employs the MaxEnt ecological niche model, predictions regarding suitable habitat distribution, and trends for D. genutia and identifying primary environmental factors influencing their distribution. The results indicate that the niche model that includes interspecies relationships provides a distribution prediction closely aligned with the observed range of D. genutia. Under current climatic conditions, highly suitable habitats for both D. genutia and its host plant, Cynanchun annularium, are located predominantly in the Yuanjiang River Valley. Optimal conditions occur at average annual temperatures of 19.80–22 °C for D. genutia and 22–24 °C for C. annularium. The distribution range of C. annularium is a vital biological factor limiting D. genutia’s habitat. By 2040, projections under four future climate scenarios indicate a potential increase in the total area of suitable habitats for D. genutia, with a general trend of northward expansion.