Preoperative prediction model for macrotrabecular-massive hepatocellular carcinoma based on contrast-enhanced CT and clinical characteristics: a retrospective study

To investigate the predictive value of contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) imaging features and clinical factors in identifying the macrotrabecular-massive (MTM) subtype of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) preoperatively. This retrospective study included 101 consecutive patients with pathology-proven HCC (35 MTM subtype vs. 66 non-MTM subtype) who underwent liver surgery and preoperative CECT scans from January 2017 to November 2021. The imaging features were evaluated by two board-certified abdominal radiologists independently. The clinical characteristics and imaging findings were compared between the MTM and non-MTM subtypes. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association of clinical-radiological variables and MTM-HCCs and develop a predictive model. Subgroup analysis was also performed in BCLC 0-A stage patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis was used to determine the optimal cutoff values and the area under the curve (AUC) was employed to evaluate predictive performance. Intratumor hypoenhancement (odds ratio [OR] = 2.724; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.033, 7.467; p = .045), tumors without enhancing capsules (OR = 3.274; 95% CI: 1.209, 9.755; p = .03), high serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (≥ 228 ng/mL, OR = 4.101; 95% CI: 1.523, 11.722; p = .006) and high hemoglobin (≥ 130.5 g/L; OR = 3.943; 95% CI: 1.466, 11.710; p = .009) were independent predictors for MTM-HCCs. The clinical-radiologic (CR) model showed the best predictive performance, achieving an AUC of 0.793, sensitivity of 62.9% and specificity of 81.8%. The CR model also effectively identify MTM-HCCs in early-stage (BCLC 0-A stage) patients. Combining CECT imaging features and clinical characteristics is an effective method for preoperatively identifying MTM-HCCs, even in early-stage patients. The CR model has high predictive performance and could potentially help guide decision-making regarding aggressive therapies in MTM-HCC patients.