Clusters of Disease Activity and Early Risk Factors of Clinical Course of Pediatric Crohn’s Disease

Abstract Background This study aimed to define clusters of disease activity and prognostic factors of disease course in a well-characterized cohort of children with Crohn’s disease (CD). Methods All patients from the SIGENP IBD (Italian Society of Pediatric Gastroenterology Hepatology and Nutrition Inflammatory Bowel Disease) registry with a 5-year follow-up and 6-monthly evaluation were included. Active disease was defined for each semester as follows: clinical activity (weighted Pediatric Crohn’s Disease Activity Index ≥12.5 or Mucosal Inflammation Noninvasive Index ≥8) and active disease on endoscopy (Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn’s Disease >3 or fecal calprotectin >250 µg/g) or imaging. Formula-based clusters were generated based on previously published patterns in adults. Results Data from 332 patients were analyzed. A total of 105 (32%) experienced a quiescent disease course; 49 (15%) and 31 (9%) a moderate-to-severe chronically active and chronic intermittent disease, respectively; 104 (31%) and 43 (13%) had active disease in the first 2 years after diagnosis and remission thereafter and vice versa, respectively. Surgery at diagnosis was significantly associated with a quiescent course (odds ratio [OR], 10.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.05-25.22; P=.0005), while growth impairment at the diagnosis and active disease requiring corticosteroids at 6 months were inversely related to the quiescent group (OR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.27-0.81; P= .007; and OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.16-0.71; P= .005, respectively). Perianal involvement at diagnosis and moderate–severe activity at 6 months correlated with disease progression (OR, 3.85; 95% CI, 1.20-12.85; P=.02). Conclusions During the first 5 years of follow-up, one-third of children with CD experience a quiescent course. However, another one-third have a moderate-to-severe disease course. Surgery at the diagnosis is related to a quiescent course, while growth impairment and lack of response to induction therapy correlate with more severe disease activity during follow-up.