Simulated Validation and Prediction of Land Use under Multiple Scenarios in Daxing District, Beijing, China, Based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model

Land-use changes in urban fringe areas are dramatic, and modelling and predicting land-use changes under different scenarios can provide a basis for urban development regulation and control. As an important part of Beijing’s urban fringe, Daxing District is representative of its land-use changes. Taking the Daxing District of Beijing as an example, this study selected two periods of land-use data in 2008 and 2018 and predicted land-use changes in 2028 and 2038 using the GeoSOS-FLUS model (geographical simulation and optimisation system–future land-use simulation) and Markov chain model, based on the simulation and validation of land use in Daxing District from 2008 to 2018. Meanwhile, three types of scenario simulations were carried out. The results in the future predictions show that: (1) under the natural development scenario, the area of construction land and grassland gradually increased, and the area of cultivated land, woodland and water bodies gradually decreased; (2) under the cultivated land protection scenario, the area of cultivated land remained largely unchanged, the area of grassland decreased before increasing, the expansion of construction land was curbed, and the area of woodland and water bodies increased slowly; and (3) under the ecological control scenario, the area of cultivated land, grassland, woodland and water bodies showed slowly increasing trends, with a small amount of cultivated land being converted to construction land. These results indicate that the setting of cultivated land protection and ecological control can limit the expansion of construction land to a certain extent. This study can provide a basis for the regulation of urban development in the Daxing District in the future.