Integrated energy system reliability evaluation based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation and fault recovery optimization

Abstract In this paper, an integrated energy system (IES) reliability assessment method based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation and fault recovery optimization is proposed considering the flexibility of dispatch and the complementary of multi-energy in IES. The reliability evaluation indices of IES are established considering the energy supply and thermal load delay characteristics. An IES failure recovery optimization model is established in which the shutdown loss and the minimum operating cost under the failure scenario are considered comprehensively. CPLEX software is applied to solve the proposed problem in order to obtain the electric and thermal load reduction power and component equipment output. Based on the principle of sequential Monte Carlo simulation, an IES reliability assessment method and process are designed. The analysis of calculation examples shows that the use of failure recovery optimization strategies and consideration of thermal load delay characteristics can effectively improve the reliability of IES.