The antagonistic effect of urban growth pattern and shrinking cities on air quality: Based on the empirical analysis of 174 cities in China

Air pollution is an important issue facing the sustainable development of cities. In the context of rapid urbanization in China, a considerable number of cities show the coexistence of external morphological expansion and internal functional shrinkage, as well as obvious spatial heterogeneity in a large-scale region. The systematic construction of their interaction mechanisms is of great significance for air pollution remediation. Therefore, this study attempts to apply geographically weighted regression (GWR) to analyze the effect of urban growth patterns and urban shrinkage on air quality based on 10-year PM2.5 concentration change data from 174 prefecture-level cities in China. The results of the study indicate that: (1) The relationship between urban growth pattern and air quality has spatial heterogeneity. (2) The impact of shrinking cities on air quality is greater in colder regions and highly industrialized areas. (3) Urban growth pattern and shrinking cities show significant antagonistic effects on air quality, and the infilling growth of shrinking cities can cause serious deterioration of air quality. Considering the different urban evolutionary paths in developed and developing countries, this study provides different suggestions for city managers to promote sustainable urban development.