Local Politics and Fluctuating Engagement with China: Analysing the Belt and Road Initiative in Maritime Southeast Asia

Abstract The past few years have witnessed that the success (or failure) of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) depends to a large extent upon engagement with and responses from recipient countries. The article explores the impact of Southeast Asian countries’ domestic socio-political factors on their foreign policymaking and BRI projects in Southeast Asia. Based on comparative political sociology, the article develops a conceptual typology of foreign policymaking and an explanatory typology of socio-political risks, both of which are further applied to studying the socio-political risks that BRI projects entail in the four maritime Southeast Asian countries of Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore. The empirical study suggests that the Philippines’ ‘populist’ type of foreign policymaking creates the highest level of risks—both political and societal—for BRI projects and that Singapore’s ‘procedural’ type produces the lowest. Malaysia’s ‘arbitrary’ type and Indonesia’s ‘democratic’ type, meanwhile, generate medium-level political or societal risks. These findings have important policy implications for Chinese-funded overseas projects.