Global decline in microbial-derived carbon stocks with climate warming and its future projections

Abstract Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents the largest terrestrial pool of organic carbon and is indispensable for mitigating climate change and sustaining soil fertility. As a major component of stable SOC, microbial-derived carbon (MDC) accounts for approximately half of the total SOC and has repercussions on climate feedback. However, our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of MDC stocks is limited, hindering assessments of the long-term impacts of global warming on persistent SOC sequestration in the soil‒atmosphere C cycle. Here, we compiled an extensive global dataset and employed ensemble machine learning techniques to forecast the spatial-temporal dynamics of MDC stocks across 93.4% of the total global land area from 1981 to 2018. Our findings revealed that for every 1°C increase in temperature, there was a global decrease of 6.7 Pg in the soil MDC stock within the predictable areas, equivalent to 1.4% of the total MDC stock or 0.9% of the atmospheric C pool. The tropical regions experienced the most substantial declines in MDC stocks. We further projected future MDC stocks for the next century based on shared socioeconomic pathways, showing a global decline in MDC stocks with a potential 6–37 Pg reduction by 2100 depending on future pathways. We recommend integrating the response of MDC stocks to warming into socioeconomic models to enhance confidence in selecting sustainable pathways.