Prediction of clinical risk assessment and survival in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with pulmonary hypertension

Abstract Background Patients with pulmonary hypertension (PH) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have an increased risk of disease exacerbation and decreased survival. We aimed to develop and validate a non‐invasive nomogram for predicting COPD associated with severe PH and a prognostic nomogram for patients with COPD and concurrent PH (COPD–PH). Methods This study included 535 patients with COPD–PH from six hospitals. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyse the risk factors for severe PH in patients with COPD and a multivariate Cox regression was used for the prognostic factors of COPD–PH. Performance was assessed using calibration, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and decision analysis curves. Kaplan–Meier curves were used for a survival analysis. The nomograms were developed as online network software. Results Tricuspid regurgitation velocity, right ventricular diameter, N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP), the red blood cell count, New York Heart Association functional class and sex were non‐invasive independent variables of severe PH in patients with COPD. These variables were used to construct a risk assessment nomogram with good discrimination. NT‐proBNP, mean pulmonary arterial pressure, partial pressure of arterial oxygen, the platelet count and albumin were independent prognostic factors for COPD–PH and were used to create a predictive nomogram of overall survival rates. Conclusions The proposed nomograms based on a large sample size of patients with COPD–PH could be used as non‐invasive clinical tools to enhance the risk assessment of severe PH in patients with COPD and for the prognosis of COPD–PH. Additionally, the online network has the potential to provide artificial intelligence‐assisted diagnosis and treatment. Highlights A multicentre study with a large sample of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients diagnosed with PH through right heart catheterisation. A non‐invasive online clinical tool for assessing severe pulmonary hypertension (PH) in COPD. The first risk assessment tool was established for Chinese patients with COPD–PH.