What predicts students’ future ICT literacy? Evidence from a large-scale study conducted in different stages of secondary school

Information and communication technology (ICT) literacy is key to solving future societal challenges and to leading an independent and responsible life in an increasingly globalized and digitalized world. Hence, countries around the world have promoted research on students' ICT skills and their inclusion in curricula. Despite these efforts, little is known about what predicts future ICT literacy, and prior research has almost exclusively conducted cross-sectional studies. In the present study, we addressed this gap by using data from a large-scale longitudinal study of 6810 students in 311 schools from Germany. These students participated in the National Educational Panel Study over the course of secondary school (in Grades 6, 9, and 12). We were particularly interested in investigating potential spillover effects from skills and dispositions that are inherently fostered in school on ICT development. Thus, we considered a rich set of different types of predictors related to the students' social, cultural, demographic, and learning backgrounds; their subject-specific motivation; and the composition of their schools, and we assessed the extent to which these variables explained variation in ICT literacy development at two key stages in the educational system (Grades 9 and 12). Our results indicated that prior ICT literacy was the most important predictor of future ICT literacy but more so for the development between Grades 9 and 12. In addition, variables related to the students' learning backgrounds, followed by variables related to the composition of their schools and students' subject-specific motivation explained future ICT literacy. Overall, the predictors explained between 49% and 67% of the variation in future ICT literacy. Our longitudinal findings suggest that the learning environment and students’ skills and dispositions are crucial for understanding ICT development and are indicative of the deliberate design of ICT interventions.