经济衰退
经济
全要素生产率
消费(社会学)
投资(军事)
生产力
计量经济学
货币经济学
凯恩斯经济学
宏观经济学
政治学
社会科学
政治
社会学
法学
作者
Sukun Luo,Yu‐Fan Huang,Richard Startz
摘要
Abstract Recessions and subsequent recoveries are frequently classified as ‘L‐shaped’ or ‘U‐shaped’, with output losses in the former being permanent and losses in the latter at least partially made up by higher than average growth during the recovery. We estimate the probability of a U‐shaped recovery for postwar NBER recessions. Most earlier recessions were U‐shaped but more recent recessions have been L‐shaped. The shape of recoveries is tracked relatively well by durable consumption, investment, labour hours and employment. Posterior probabilities for the shape of recoveries for nondurable consumption and participation rate are less decisive. However, total factor productivity appears to recover rapidly after all recessions.
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