Content Promotion for Online Content Platforms with the Diffusion Effect

Problem definition: Content promotion policies are crucial for online content platforms to improve content consumption and user engagement. However, traditional promotion policies generally neglect the diffusion effect within a crowd of users. In this paper, we study the candidate generation and promotion optimization (CGPO) problem for an online content platform, emphasizing the incorporation of the diffusion effect. Methodology/results: We propose a diffusion model that incorporates platform promotion decisions to characterize the adoption process of online content. Based on this diffusion model, we formulate the CGPO problem as a mixed-integer program with nonconvex and nonlinear constraints, which is proved to be NP-hard. Additionally, we investigate methods for estimating the diffusion model parameters using available online platform data and introduce novel double ordinary least squares (D-OLS) estimators. We prove the submodularity of the objective function for the CGPO problem, which enables us to find an efficient [Formula: see text]-approximation greedy solution. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the D-OLS estimators are consistent and have smaller asymptotic variances than traditional ordinary least squares estimators. By utilizing real data from a large-scale video-sharing platform, we show that our diffusion model effectively characterizes the adoption process of online content. Compared with the policy implemented on the platform, our proposed promotion policy increases total adoptions by 49.90%. Managerial implications: Our research highlights the essential role of diffusion in online content and provides actionable insights for online content platforms to optimize their content promotion policies by leveraging our diffusion model. Funding: R. Zhang is grateful for the financial support from the Hong Kong Research Grants Council General Research Fund [Grants 14502722 and 14504123] and the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 72293560/72293565]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.0172 .