Interactive influences of meteorological and socioeconomic factors on ecosystem service values in a river basin with different geomorphic features

Ecosystem service value (ESV) is influenced by land use and land cover (LULC), and is closely related to natural conditions and human activities. However, the interactions between human and natural systems and ESV remain unclear, especially concerning widely discussed meteorological and socioeconomic factors. In this study, three periods of LULC patterns (2000, 2010, and 2020) in the Haihe River Basin, northern China, were collected to determine the relationship between changes in LULC and ESV over time. Natural and socioeconomic data associated with ESV were obtained and the structural equation model was used to decouple interactions between these factors. Results showed that the total value of regional ecosystem services has decreased as cultivated land shrunk and artificial surfaces increased over the past two decades. The ESV was significantly decreased in the middle of the basin. The direct effects of meteorological factors and socioeconomic factors on ESV were positive (0.094) and negative (-0.203), respectively. The indirect effect of socioeconomic factors on ESV through meteorological and LULC factors was 0.149. Structural equation modeling demonstrated that under the dominance of LULC, interactions between natural and socioeconomic factors affected ESV in a complex manner. These results implied that identifying the direct and indirect effects of economic development and human activities on ESV could guide and implement effective land management policies.