A framework to analyze carbon impacts of digital economy: The case of China

Digital economy (DE) has become one of the most noticeable phenomena proceeding in economic, societal, and environmental systems. However, no consensus for a modeling framework of its widespread impacts has emerged. In particular, no explicit model that quantifies or analyzes the carbon impacts of DE exists. Here, we develop a phased, quantitative input-output framework that evaluates to what extent DE affects carbon emissions. Several mechanisms for the carbon effects can be analyzed using this framework, e.g., the emissions embodied in digital demand and enabled by digital supply through industrial backward and forward linkages. The China case shows that when the combined effects of digital demand and supply were considered, DE could lead to ∼6% of the country's total emissions. Driven by expanding digital demand and supply scales, digital emissions soared from 210 to 418 Mt CO2 between 2002 and 2007. However, the growth had largely slowed down in 2007–2017 thanks to improvements in sectoral carbon efficiency and digital production and application structure. Quantitative information gained from the framework provides additional insights for policymakers to formulate economy-wide measures, e.g., modulating the expansion of digital production and sale chains, to curb the emissions from the boosting DE.