Integrated modelling for cropping pattern optimization and planning considering the synergy of water resources-society-economy-ecology-environment system

Cropping patterns are essential for the sustainable development of regional agriculture and land conservation. To solve the complex system problems of the multidimensional coordination of water resources, society, economy, environment and ecology, and dynamics in the decision-making of cropping pattern adjustment, this paper proposes a multidimensional cooperative optimization modeling method for cropping patterns based on system dynamics. The system association and dynamic evolution trends of the driving elements are simulated and coupled to the multidimensional multitarget planning model, which can realize the multidimensional optimization and dynamic prediction of cropping patterns in different regions. The proposed method is applied to empirical research in Heilongjiang Province. The results showed that optimization of the cropping pattern contributed to an increase in the cooperative development of the system in 2016, 2025, and 2030 by 24.14 %, 42.36 % and 51.36 %, respectively, evolving from a state of barely cooperative to a state of high-quality cooperative. This indicates that the model helps to promote the sustainable use of cultivated land. The optimization improved the crop diversity, with a variety of food crops planted in most regions. The optimization results of the spatial network consisting of 182 irrigation areas show that the resource utilization efficiency, economic benefits, environmental pollution situation, and resource allocation fairness improved by approximately 20 % in different partitions. The model can reflect the dynamics, balance conflicts of the multidimensional targets of cropping patterns, and promote the sustainable use of cultivated land. It can be used as a general model and is applicable to most areas where other cultivation occupies an important place. • A system dynamics-based multidimensional regulated model for crop patterns is proposed. • Trade-offs between water resources, the economy, society, the environment and ecology dimensions are optimized. • The dynamics and relevance of multidimensional target-driven elements are quantified through simulation. • Agricultural sustainability reflected in water resource use efficiency, equity, and eco-environment effects is improved.