Modelling mangrove-mudflat dynamics with a coupled individual-based-hydro-morphodynamic model

As climate-change-driven extremes potentially make coastal areas more vulnerable, mangroves can help sustainably protect the coasts. There is a substantial understanding of both mangrove dynamics and hydro-morphodynamic processes. However, the knowledge of complex eco-geomorphic interactions with physical-environmental stressors remains lacking. We introduce a novel coupled modelling approach consisting of an individual-based mangrove (mesoFON) and a process-based hydromorphodynamic model (Delft3D-FM). This coupled model is unique because it resolves spatiotemporal processes, including tidal, seasonal, and decadal environmental changes (water level, flow, sediment availability, and salinity) with full life-stages (propagule, seedling, sapling, mature) mangrove interaction. It allows us to mechanistically simulate forest expansion, retreat, and colonisation influenced by and with feedback on physical-environmental drivers. The model is applied in a schematized mixed fluvial-tidal deltaic mangrove forest in dominantly muddy sediment inspired by the prograding delta of Porong, Indonesia. Model results successfully reproduce observed mangrove extent development, age-height relationship, and morphodynamic delta features.