Impact of density on the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Chinese cities

Evaluating the effects of population density on the COVID-19 pandemic is of great importance for pandemic prevention and implementation of the Healthy China Strategy. Previous studies paid little attention to Chinese cities and have not filtered out the effects of local government intervention. Using a sample of 273 cities in China at the prefecture level and above, this study analyzed the effects of population density on the COVID-19 confirmation and recovery rates and empirically examined the reasons for the effects. We found that the higher the population density, the higher the COVID-19 confirmation and recovery rates in cities. This is because high population density shortens the social distance. Additionally, densely populated cities are mostly transportation hubs where people disperse, resulting in a high confirmation rate. However, high population density can improve the recovery rate of COVID-19 by improving healthcare infrastructure and increasing the health awareness and behavior of individuals in cities. No evidence was found for population density affecting mortality rate. For Chinese cities, optimizing urban population density according to the local conditions is beneficial for achieving the Healthy China Strategy and the well-being of residents.