Mangrove freeze resistance and resilience across a tropical‐temperate transitional zone

Abstract Freeze events govern the distribution and structure of mangrove ecosystems, especially in tropical‐temperate transitional zones. Understanding mangrove responses to freezing is crucial for predicting their poleward expansion under climate change. However, there is a need for field‐based measurements of mangrove freeze resistance and resilience. After an extreme winter storm in December 2022, we measured mangrove post‐freeze damage and recovery (January and November 2023), building on a pre‐freeze baseline assessment conducted in July 2022 across 12 sites along the temperature gradient of Florida's Gulf of Mexico coast (USA). Low‐temperature thresholds for leaf damage to Avicennia germinans , Rhizophora mangle and Laguncularia racemosa were quantified near −6, −4 and − 4°C, respectively. Thresholds for mortality were found to be near −6 to −7°C for A. germinans and −4 to −5°C for R. mangle . A threshold for loss of reproductivity in A. germinans was identified near −6 to −7°C. Resprouting was observed in all three species but limited to just one individual for R. mangle . Surviving A. germinans resprouted vigorously and had the greatest number of resprout branches, which was proportional to leaf damage. Tall A. germinans had a higher resprout percentage than short trees. Strata‐specific differences in freeze damage were most pronounced for R. mangle , with higher damage in tall versus short trees, while no difference was found between A. germinans strata. These results suggest that R. mangle population recovery may depend on the growth of short trees, while A. germinans can recover from all strata. Minimum air temperature was strongly correlated with mangrove height and above‐ground biomass. Projections of future minimum temperature and species‐specific freeze degree days predict warming winters, suggesting further mangrove development and range expansion under climate change. Synthesis : Collectively, our study advances understanding of mangrove responses to freezing and identifies low‐temperature thresholds for each species, aiding predictions of mangrove range expansion.