Modeling directed weighted network based on event coincidence analysis and its application on spatial propagation characteristics

The problem of synchronicity quantification, based on event occurrence time, has become the research focus in different fields. Methods of synchrony measurement provide an effective way to explore spatial propagation characteristics of extreme events. Using the synchrony measurement method of event coincidence analysis, we construct a directed weighted network and innovatively explore the direction of correlations between event sequences. Based on trigger event coincidence, the synchrony of traffic extreme events of base stations is measured. Analyzing topology characteristics of the network, we study the spatial propagation characteristics of traffic extreme events in the communication system, including the propagation area, propagation influence, and spatial aggregation. This study provides a framework of network modeling to quantify the propagation characteristics of extreme events, which is helpful for further research on the prediction of extreme events. In particular, our framework is effective for events that occurred in time aggregation. In addition, from the perspective of a directed network, we analyze differences between the precursor event coincidence and the trigger event coincidence and the impact of event aggregation on the synchrony measurement methods. The precursor event coincidence and the trigger event coincidence are consistent when identifying event synchronization, while there are differences when measuring the event synchronization extent. Our study can provide a reference for the analysis of extreme climatic events such as rainstorms, droughts, and others in the climate field.