Habitat quality evaluation and pattern simulation of coastal salt marsh wetlands

Coastal salt marsh wetlands not only sequester a large amount of organic carbon, mitigating the effect of climate change, but also nurture rich wetland resources and diverse ecological environments. In this study, habitat pattern and quality of the Jiangsu Yancheng Wetland Rare Birds National Nature Reserve were studied. The evolution of habitat patterns was analyzed using the U-Net model and Sentinel-2 data. The habitat quality was evaluated using the InVEST model, while the future habitat pattern in 2027 under different scenarios were simulated using the PLUS model. Our results showed that, during 2017–2022, the Suaeda salsa habitat showed a net decrease in area of 2077.61 ha, while Spartina alterniflora and Phragmites australis habitats manifested a net increase in different degrees. The overall habitat pattern was characterized by fragmentation decline and regularization enhancement. The habitat quality decreased from 0.75 to 0.72, mainly due to the loss of the S. salsa habitat and the expansion of the P. australis habitat. The simulation results indicated that, the habitat quality is expected to further decline to 0.71 under the natural development scenario, and 390.27 ha of S. salsa habitat will convert to P. australis. While in government control scenario, the habitat quality is expected to improve to 0.78, which was 0.07 higher than that in natural development scenario, and S. salsa habitat can be restored well. This study provides a scientific basis for the protection of suitable habitats for waterfowl and is crucial for the ecological conservation and management planning of nature reserves and coastal salt marsh wetlands.