Toward carbon‐neutral ethylene production: assessment of the application potential of bio‐ethylene production pathways in China

Abstract The production of bio‐ethylene is a promising way to replace fossil‐based ethylene production, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and working towards China's carbon neutrality goals. This study elaborates on five bio‐ethylene technological pathways: first‐ and second‐generation bioethanol dehydration, direct and indirect thermochemical synthesis, and methanol‐to‐olefins (MTO). It retrieves information about them from commercial patents and the scientific literature, and comprehensively assesses their potential for application in large‐scale ethylene production in China. The techno‐economic feasibility of these five technological pathways is discussed in terms of feedstock availability, investment level, technological development level, and political issues such as the carbon neutrality goal to which China's government is committed. Overall, two pathways (indirect thermochemical synthesis and MTO) exhibited competitive minimum ethylene selling prices at 5243 yuan/t (822 USD t –1 ) and 6767 yuan/t (1061 USD t –1 ), respectively, of which both are lower than the average ethylene market price of 7000 yuan/t (1098 USD t –1 ). In comparison with the conventional fossil‐derived ethylene, bio‐ethylene could decrease carbon emission by 3.2%–15.1% under a scenario of 20% bio‐ethylene substitution in 2019, showing promising potential for decarbonizing the ethylene industry and contributing to the achievement of China's carbon neutrality goals. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.