生态系统服务
大都市区
城市化
城市规划
生态系统
城市扩张
环境资源管理
环境科学
城市生态系统
环境规划
计算机科学
地理
生态学
土木工程
工程类
生物
考古
作者
Yingying Sun,Dianfeng Liu,Peng Wang
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2021.103432
摘要
Rapid urbanization evidently affected ecosystem service provisions. Although numerous models have incorporated ecosystem services into land use decisions, most of them typically ignored the interactions between multiple ecosystem services (MES), as well as their impact on future urban expansion. Here, we propose a novel urban simulation model based on the integration of the coupling coordination evaluation of MES and cellular automata. The Wuhan Metropolitan Area was selected to test the model. Six conservation scenarios at different ecological coupling coordination levels were designed to predict urban expansion in 2030 and examine how ES interactions impact urban expansion modes. The results showed that the proposed model has an accuracy of 84.01% and can better capture the changes in MES interactions caused by urban expansion. A significantly negative correlation exists between the coupling coordination degree of MES and urban expansion, with a decreased coefficient from -0.924 to -0.945 during the period of 2010-2015. Our results also suggest that single conservation scenario may be inadequate to coordinate MES and urban expansion, which necessitates a comprehensive ecological protection mechanism in spatial planning. The proposed model can provide better understanding of relationships between MES interactions and urban expansion, and help planners to generate sustainable urban development policies.
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