Hydrological modelling of a snow/glacier-fed western Himalayan basin to simulate the current and future streamflows under changing climate scenarios

Himalayan rivers are the paramount source of water supply to millions of people in northern India for drinking, irrigation and hydropower generation. Several researches reported that the hydrological regime of these Himalayan rivers is vulnerable to climate change. In order to understand the hydrologic response of their headwaters and examine the climate change impacts on streamflow, a hydrological modelling study is carried out in the upper part of the Satluj river basin in western Himalaya by using a temperature index based SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) model. The model performed well for both calibration (years 1986–2000) and validation (2001–2005) periods against the observed daily streamflow at Rampur (R2 ≈ 0.9 and NSE ≥ 0.85). The study reveals that having a larger snow covered area, the snowmelt runoff is the major contributor to the Satluj river discharge at Rampur that comes out to be about 68–71% of the average annual water yield of about 600 mm. The actual evapotranspiration comes out to be about 14% of precipitation. The water yield of the basin is about 50% of the precipitation, for which the major part is generated in early summer. Further, to study the climate change impact on future streamflow, the downscaled data of CORDEX CCSM4 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios are used. The bias correction is applied at point level to remove biases from future time series of downscaled data and subsequently loaded into the SWAT model to simulate the future streamflows at the end of the century. The future climate variability in terms of precipitation and temperature exhibited that the climate in the region would become wetter and warmer. A 14% to 21% of increase in annual precipitation is predicted towards the end of the century from the current average annual precipitation of about 420 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Similar to precipitation, the temperature will also be increased by 2.18 °C to 5.71 °C (in both the RCPs) than the current temperature values. The changed climate conditions in future are transformed into the possible range of stream flows using the SWAT model and found that the future climate would increase the streamflow by over 11%–19% at the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The outcome of this study can be used to develop the suitable strategies for sustainable water management in the region.