A possible seismic gap and high earthquake hazard in the North China Basin

Research Article| January 01, 2015 A possible seismic gap and high earthquake hazard in the North China Basin An Yin; An Yin * 1Structural Geology Group, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China2Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, University of California–Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095-1567, USA *E-mail: yin@ess.ucla.edu Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Xiangjiang Yu; Xiangjiang Yu 2Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, University of California–Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095-1567, USA3School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Z.-K. Shen; Z.-K. Shen 2Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, University of California–Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095-1567, USA Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Jing Liu-Zeng Jing Liu-Zeng 4Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100027, China Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Geology (2015) 43 (1): 19–22. https://doi.org/10.1130/G35986.1 Article history received: 16 Jun 2014 rev-recd: 06 Oct 2014 accepted: 08 Oct 2014 first online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share MailTo Twitter LinkedIn Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation An Yin, Xiangjiang Yu, Z.-K. Shen, Jing Liu-Zeng; A possible seismic gap and high earthquake hazard in the North China Basin. Geology 2015;; 43 (1): 19–22. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G35986.1 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGeology Search Advanced Search Abstract In this study we use combined historical records and results of early paleo-earthquake studies to show that a 160 km seismic gap has existed along the northeast-striking right-slip Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian fault (China) over more than 8400 yr. The seismic gap is centered in Tianjin, a city in the North China Basin with a population of 11 million and located ∼100 km from Beijing, which has a population of 22 million. Current data indicate that the recurrence interval of major earthquakes along the Tangshan-Hejian-Cixian fault is 6700–10,800 yr. This implies that a large earthquake with an estimated magnitude of ∼M 7.5 is either overdue or will occur within the next 2000–3000 yr along the inferred seismic gap if it is ruptured by a single event. Alternatively, the seismic gap may be explained by aseismic creeping, strain transfer between adjacent faults, or much longer recurrence times than the current knowledge indicates. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.