Observed carbon decoupling of subnational production insufficient for net-zero goal by 2050

Historically, economic growth has been closely coupled to carbon emissions responsible for climate change, but to stabilize global mean temperature, net-zero carbon emissions are necessary. Some economies have begun to reduce emissions while continuing to grow, but this decoupling is not fast enough to achieve global climate targets. Subnational climate actions seem to be crucial for the achievement of these targets. Here, we uncover the effectiveness of subnational efforts by estimating decoupling rates and CO2 emission intensities over the last three decades for over 1,500 subnational regions, encompassing 85% of global emissions, using global data on reported economic output and gridded production-based emissions. Thirty percent of regions with available data have fully decoupled, with higher-income and historically carbon-intensive regions exhibiting higher rates of decoupling and declining emission intensity. Countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development with greater spending on subnational climate actions show higher decoupling rates, as do subnational regions in EU countries where climate policies have been implemented, highlighting the effectiveness of subnational policies. Moreover, subnational analysis reveals greater variance of decoupling rates within national boundaries than between them and that countries with weaker governance typically show higher variance of decoupling within their borders. If recent rates of production-based carbon decoupling continue, less than half of subnational regions would reach net-zero before 2050, even when accounting for observed acceleration via socioeconomic development and assuming no interregional carbon leakage.