Tax Credit Refundability and Child Care Prices: Evidence from California

A common critique of nonrefundable tax credits is that benefits are limited for low-income households. Costs often dominate the refundability debate, yet how much households benefit from refundability depends on the incidence of the credit in question. California provides a unique opportunity to study how eliminating refundability of child care tax credits affects child care prices while holding other policy dimensions fixed. Using county-level price and tax return data, this study finds that nonrefundability corresponds with lower child care prices. If the price response is symmetrical and quality adjustments are limited, refundability may benefit low-income families less than the cost of the program would suggest.