Cancer Incidence Trends in Successive Social Generations in the US

医学 人口学 入射(几何) 队列 癌症 太平洋岛民 流行病学 民族 癌症登记处 代群效应 癌症发病率 老年学 内科学 人口 环境卫生 社会学 物理 人类学 光学
作者
Philip S. Rosenberg,Adalberto Miranda‐Filho
出处
期刊:JAMA network open [American Medical Association]
卷期号:7 (6): e2415731-e2415731
标识
DOI:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.15731
摘要

Importance The incidence of some cancers in the US is increasing in younger age groups, but underlying trends in cancer patterns by birth year remain unclear. Objective To estimate cancer incidence trends in successive social generations. Design, Setting, and Participants In this cohort study, incident invasive cancers were ascertained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program’s 13-registry database (November 2020 submission, accessed August 14, 2023). Invasive cancers diagnosed at ages 35 to 84 years during 1992 to 2018 within 152 strata were defined by cancer site, sex, and race and ethnicity. Exposure Invasive cancer. Main Outcome and Measures Stratum-specific semiparametric age-period-cohort (SAGE) models were fitted and incidence per 100 000 person-years at the reference age of 60 years was calculated for single-year birth cohorts from 1908 through 1983 (fitted cohort patterns [FCPs]). The FCPs and FCP incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were compared by site for Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980) and Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964). Results A total of 3.8 million individuals with invasive cancer (51.0% male; 8.6% Asian or Pacific Islander, 9.5% Hispanic, 10.4% non-Hispanic Black, and 71.5% non-Hispanic White) were included in the analysis. In Generation X vs Baby Boomers, FCP IRRs among women increased significantly for thyroid (2.76; 95% CI, 2.41-3.15), kidney (1.99; 95% CI, 1.70-2.32), rectal (1.84; 95% CI, 1.52-2.22), corpus uterine (1.75; 95% CI, 1.40-2.18), colon (1.56; 95% CI, 1.27-1.92), and pancreatic (1.39; 95% CI, 1.07-1.80) cancers; non-Hodgkins lymphoma (1.40; 95% CI, 1.08-1.82); and leukemia (1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.58). Among men, IRRs increased for thyroid (2.16; 95% CI, 1.87-2.50), kidney (2.14; 95% CI, 1.86-2.46), rectal (1.80; 95% CI, 1.52-2.12), colon (1.60; 95% CI, 1.32-1.94), and prostate (1.25; 95% CI, 1.03-1.52) cancers and leukemia (1.34; 95% CI, 1.08-1.66). Lung (IRR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.50-0.72) and cervical (IRR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89) cancer incidence decreased among women, and lung (IRR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43-0.60), liver (IRR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.91), and gallbladder (IRR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72-1.00) cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.93) incidence decreased among men. For all cancers combined, FCPs were higher in Generation X than for Baby Boomers because gaining cancers numerically overtook falling cancers in all groups except Asian or Pacific Islander men. Conclusions and Relevance In this model-based cohort analysis of incident invasive cancer in the general population, decreases in lung and cervical cancers in Generation X may be offset by gains at other sites. Generation X may be experiencing larger per-capita increases in the incidence of leading cancers than any prior generation born in 1908 through 1964. On current trajectories, cancer incidence could remain high for decades.
最长约 10秒,即可获得该文献文件

科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI
更新
PDF的下载单位、IP信息已删除 (2025-6-4)

科研通是完全免费的文献互助平台,具备全网最快的应助速度,最高的求助完成率。 对每一个文献求助,科研通都将尽心尽力,给求助人一个满意的交代。
实时播报
刚刚
许安发布了新的文献求助10
1秒前
1秒前
Dyson发布了新的文献求助30
2秒前
2秒前
丘比特应助科研通管家采纳,获得30
3秒前
3秒前
上官若男应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
3秒前
3秒前
4秒前
4秒前
4秒前
shinysparrow应助科研通管家采纳,获得200
4秒前
guogangyouming完成签到,获得积分10
4秒前
明亮的如曼完成签到,获得积分10
5秒前
迷你的靖雁完成签到,获得积分10
5秒前
zhaxiao发布了新的文献求助10
5秒前
6秒前
栗子发布了新的文献求助10
7秒前
搜集达人应助陈博文采纳,获得10
8秒前
喜悦落雁完成签到 ,获得积分20
11秒前
孤僻完成签到,获得积分10
12秒前
12秒前
14秒前
15秒前
15秒前
英姑应助白小白采纳,获得10
15秒前
ahey完成签到,获得积分10
15秒前
无花果应助淡淡向日葵采纳,获得10
17秒前
hoongyan完成签到 ,获得积分10
18秒前
赘婿应助无忧诀采纳,获得10
19秒前
只因发布了新的文献求助10
20秒前
Dilmma完成签到,获得积分10
21秒前
22秒前
23秒前
快乐茗发布了新的文献求助90
24秒前
二星完成签到,获得积分10
25秒前
QuJiahao完成签到,获得积分10
25秒前
26秒前
三笠发布了新的文献求助10
27秒前
高分求助中
A new approach to the extrapolation of accelerated life test data 1000
Picture Books with Same-sex Parented Families: Unintentional Censorship 700
ACSM’s Guidelines for Exercise Testing and Prescription, 12th edition 500
Nucleophilic substitution in azasydnone-modified dinitroanisoles 500
不知道标题是什么 500
Indomethacinのヒトにおける経皮吸収 400
Phylogenetic study of the order Polydesmida (Myriapoda: Diplopoda) 370
热门求助领域 (近24小时)
化学 材料科学 医学 生物 工程类 有机化学 生物化学 物理 内科学 纳米技术 计算机科学 化学工程 复合材料 遗传学 基因 物理化学 催化作用 冶金 细胞生物学 免疫学
热门帖子
关注 科研通微信公众号,转发送积分 3975693
求助须知:如何正确求助?哪些是违规求助? 3520019
关于积分的说明 11200635
捐赠科研通 3256410
什么是DOI,文献DOI怎么找? 1798255
邀请新用户注册赠送积分活动 877490
科研通“疑难数据库(出版商)”最低求助积分说明 806390