Dose-dependent Association of Alcohol Consumption With Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes: Mendelian Randomization Analyses

Abstract Context Effects of modest alcohol consumption remain controversial. Mendelian randomization (MR) can help to mitigate biases due to confounding and reverse causation in observational studies, and evaluate the potential causal role of alcohol consumption. Objective This work aimed to evaluate dose-dependent effect of alcohol consumption on obesity and type 2 diabetes. Methods Assessing 408 540 participants of European ancestry in the UK Biobank, we first tested the association between self-reported alcohol intake frequency and 10 anthropometric measurements, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. We then conducted MR analyses both in the overall population and in subpopulations stratified by alcohol intake frequency. Results Among individuals having more than 14 drinks per week, a 1-drink-per-week increase in genetically predicted alcohol intake frequency was associated with a 0.36-kg increase in fat mass (SD = 0.03 kg), a 1.08-fold increased odds of obesity (95% CI, 1.06-1.10), and a 1.10-fold increased odds of type 2 diabetes (95% CI, 1.06-1.13). These associations were stronger in women than in men. Furthermore, no evidence was found supporting the association between genetically increased alcohol intake frequency and improved health outcomes among individuals having 7 or fewer drinks per week, as MR estimates largely overlapped with the null. These results withstood multiple sensitivity analyses assessing the validity of MR assumptions. Conclusion As opposed to observational associations, MR results suggest there may not be protective effects of modest alcohol consumption on obesity traits and type 2 diabetes. Heavy alcohol consumption could lead to increased measures of obesity as well as increased risk of type 2 diabetes.