消光(光学矿物学)
气候变化
环境科学
生物扩散
航程(航空)
温室气体
全球变暖
生态学
大气科学
生物
地质学
人口
古生物学
材料科学
人口学
社会学
复合材料
作者
Chris D. Thomas,A. Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,A. S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega‐Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams
出处
期刊:Nature
[Springer Nature]
日期:2004-01-01
卷期号:427 (6970): 145-148
被引量:6789
摘要
Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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