Quantitative analysis and prediction of urban heat island intensity on urban-rural gradient: A case study of Shanghai

Urbanization causes enormous land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which have become significant drivers of land surface temperature (LST) change in rapidly urbanizing city, and the changes in LULC subsequently increase the LST to form urban heat island (UHI). This paper first identified the spatial distribution pattern of the LULC changes and surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) in the study area in recent 20 years based on Landsat TM/OLI data. And later, the relationship between the distribution of impervious surface (IS) and vegetable coverage (VC) and SUHII was analyzed quantitatively. Then, the land cover and land surface temperature (LST) in Shanghai in 2027 under three development modes were simulated and predicted based on FLUS model and geospatial analysis. The results showed that (1) Regional land cover and LST had obvious differences in gradient distribution from urban to rural areas, and the outer ring road (Ring3) was an obvious dividing line; (2) the proportion of IS and VC were significantly positively (|R| > 0.695) and negatively (|R| > 0.328) correlated with LST; (3) under the three different scenario development models, the ecological space protection model effectively regulated the SUHII, which was 15.91% less than the SUHII in 2017 (34% inside Ring3 and 14% outside Ring3). The results could provide a reference for the rational allocation of urban land and landscape optimization in reducing SUHII` in typical urbanized areas.