The longitudinal network of peer problems and emotional symptoms among Australian adolescents: Bayesian structure learning of directed acyclic graphs.

Adolescence is a period in which peer problems and emotional symptoms markedly increase in prevalence. However, the causal mechanisms regarding how peer problems cause emotional symptoms at a behavioral level and vice versa remain unknown. To address this gap, the present study investigated the longitudinal network of peer problems and emotional symptoms among Australian adolescents aged 12-14 years. Data were from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. The complete case samples included adolescents who participated in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children B (n = 2,694) or K (n = 3,144) Cohorts at two study follow-ups (ages 12 and 14). Peer problems and emotional symptoms were measured with the self-report Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. The analytical steps were (a) in Study 1, a causal discovery algorithm, Bayesian structure learning of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), was used to identify the longitudinal network in the K Cohort; (b) the DAG discovered was evaluated with Bayesian structural equation modeling in an independent sample (the B Cohort) and compared against a DAG established through expert knowledge; and (c) in Study 2, the longitudinal network was again evaluated but considered contemporaneous effects. The empirically discovered DAG provided a better explanation of independent data than the expert DAG. Based on the discovered DAG, several plausible causal effects were identified such as that being bullied at age 12 negatively affected popularity at age 14. This study provides new insights into potential causal effects established between peer problems and emotional symptoms among Australian adolescents aged 12-14 years. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).