Business Case for Transit Bus Automated Collision Avoidance Systems

Although the National Transportation Safety Board has strongly recommended the application of collision avoidance warning systems and automated emergency braking (CAWS/AEB), the transit industry has lagged behind autos and trucks. CAWS/AEB for buses is more complex than for cars and trucks and represents a niche market. If bus manufacturers and suppliers are to invest in developing this technology, they will need to be convinced there is a market for it. Transit agencies also will need to be convinced that the technology works and is affordable. For both vendors and purchasers, a business case could be made that some or all of the expense of procuring and deploying the technology can be recovered through savings from reduced insurance premiums and claims payouts by preventing or mitigating collisions. This paper describes two methods for estimating the business case for equipping transit buses with CAWS/AEB. First, industrywide data on the numbers of collisions and casualty and liability expenses incurred by transit agencies were examined, and statistical relationships were modeled to determine whether reducing the numbers of collisions would reduce casualty and liability expenses. Second, individual collision claims records for specific transit agencies were examined to determine whether the collisions could have been prevented by CAWS/AEB, and the potential savings.