Seismic hazard study for the duration of ground-motions triggered by intraslab earthquakes

Abstract This paper presents a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the duration of ground motions in Mexico City caused by intraslab earthquakes. The study implies establishing criteria to measure the duration of ground motions and developing predictive equations (GMPEs) for its estimation. Focus is placed on the relative significant duration, $$D_{Sr}$$ D Sr , which is based on the accumulation of energy of ground motions. The study extends to the development of hazard curves that allow estimating the annual probability of exceedance of said parameter. The scope is limited to ground motions caused by intraslab earthquakes occurring in Mexico and that engineeringly affect its capital, Mexico City, which is in a geographical region where the effects of soil-dynamic amplification are manifested considerably. A strong-motion database that includes 1517 horizontal accelerograms, with peak ground acceleration, $$PGA$$ PGA , greater than or equal to 3 cm/s 2 , recorded during 21 earthquakes from 1994 to 2023 were used to develop the GMPEs. The quantitative description of the time, size, and spatial distribution of the seismic-activity occurrence was defined using a catalog of 46 earthquakes that occurred from 1900 to 2023. The earthquakes have moment magnitude, $$M_{w}$$ M w , greater than or equal to 6. With the tools developed, amplitude- and duration-based hazard-consistent accelerograms can be simulated and used in nonlinear dynamic analyses (NDAs) of structures. This study includes an application example where three sites in Mexico City are selected to compute inelastic response spectra. Hysteretic-energy demands up to 5 times higher are found after a comparison between the inelastic-response spectra from hazard-consistent accelerograms and those provided by current Mexican regulations.