Longitudinal Assessment of Three Serum Biomarkers to Detect Very Early‐Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

We aimed to determine the surveillance performance of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), lectin-reactive AFP (AFP-L3), des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP), and their combinations for the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by using prospectively collected longitudinal samples in patients at risk. Among 689 patients with cirrhosis and/or chronic hepatitis B who participated in four prospective studies, 42 HCC cases were diagnosed, selected, and matched with 168 controls for age, sex, etiology, cirrhosis, and duration of follow-up in a 1:4 ratio. Levels of AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP at the time of HCC diagnosis, month -6, and month -12 were compared between cases and controls. Of 42 HCC cases, 39 (93%) had cirrhosis, 36 (85.7%) had normal alanine aminotransferase levels, and 31 (73.8%) had very early-stage HCC (single <2 cm). AFP and AFP-L3 began to increase from 6 months before diagnosis of HCC in cases (P < 0.05), while they remained unchanged in controls. At HCC diagnosis, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUROCs) for AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP were 0.77, 0.73, and 0.71, respectively. Combining AFP and AFP-L3 showed a higher AUROC (0.83), while adding DCP did not further improve the AUROC (0.86). With the optimal cutoff values (AFP, 5 ng/mL; AFP-L3, 4%), the sensitivity and specificity of AFP and AFP-L3 combination were 79% and 87%, respectively. The sensitivity of ultrasonography was 48.6%, which was increased to 88.6% and 94.3% by adding AFP and AFP + AFP-L3, respectively. Conclusion: Among three biomarkers, AFP showed the best performance in discriminating HCC cases from controls; the AFP and AFP-L3 combination, adopting cutoff values (5 ng/mL and 4%, respectively), significantly improved the sensitivity for detecting HCC at a very early stage.