Quantitative Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emissions and Absorption from Agricultural Land Resources in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2022

Agriculture is not only a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions but also a vast carbon sink system. Achieving the “dual carbon” goals—carbon peaking and carbon neutrality—is a major strategic objective for China in the near future. This study focuses on agricultural data from 2010 to 2022 in Shaanxi Province. It begins by analyzing the current economic and environmental conditions of the province and its resource endowment. This study then quantitatively assesses carbon absorption, carbon emissions, and the net carbon sink in agriculture over this period. Additionally, a vector autoregression (VAR) model is used to empirically analyze the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and their influencing factors in Shaanxi Province. Key findings include the following: (1) From 2010 to 2022, the total carbon emissions from agriculture in Shaanxi Province were controlled to around 3 million tons, showing an overall trend of “growth-slow decline” with fluctuations. The carbon emissions from fertilizer application accounted for approximately 60% of the total carbon emissions from agriculture in Shaanxi Province, with a total volume ranging from 1.623 to 2.164 million tons. The total carbon absorption from agriculture in Shaanxi Province showed an increasing trend with fluctuations year by year from 2010 to 2022, with an average annual increase of 1.367%. (2) Fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, and agricultural diesel are the primary contributors to agricultural carbon emissions. (3) Results from the Johansen cointegration test reveal a long-term equilibrium relationship between agricultural carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province and influencing factors such as fertilizers and pesticides in the short term. The contributions of fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, and agricultural diesel to agricultural carbon emissions are 1.351%, 1.888%, 10.663%, and 0.258%, respectively. (4) The long-term contributions of fertilizers and pesticides to agricultural carbon emissions initially increased before undergoing a gradual attenuation, with average attenuation rates of 1.351% and 1.888%, respectively.