Evaluation and prediction of anthropogenic impacts on long-term multimedia fate and health risks of PFOS and PFOA in the Elbe River Basin

Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have aroused great concern owing to their widespread occurrence and toxic effects. However, their long-term trends and multimedia fate remain largely unknown. Here, we investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics and periodic oscillations of PFOS and PFOA in the Elbe River between 2010 and 2021. Anthropogenic emission inventories and multimedia fugacity model were developed to analyse their historical and future transport fates and quantify related human risks in each medium for the three age groups. The results show that average PFOS and PFOA concentrations in the Elbe River were 4.08 and 3.41 ng/L, declining at the annual rate of 7.36% and 4.98% during the study period, respectively. Periodic oscillations of their concentrations and mass fluxes were most pronounced at 40–60 and 20–40 months. The multimedia fugacity model revealed that higher concentrations occurred in fish (PFOS: 14.29, PFOA: 0.40 ng/g), while the soil was their dominant sink (PFOS: 179, PFOA: 95 tons). The exchange flux between water and sediment was the dominant pathway in multimedia transportation (397 kg/year). Although PFOS and PFOA concentrations are projected to decrease by 22.41% and 50.08%, respectively, from 2021 to 2050, the hazard quotient of PFOS in fish is a low hazard. This study provides information for the assessment of PFOS and PFOA pollution in global watersheds and the development of related mitigation policies, such as banning fish predation in polluted rivers, to mitigate their risks.