Reliability Analysis of a Drilling Bit Penetration Model in Oil and Gas Wells: A Case Study

Rate of drilling bit penetration into the subsurface formations, referred to as rate of penetration (ROP), is considered as the main optimization parameter in the drilling operation. ROP optimization results in a faster and cheaper operation. The rate of bit penetration depends on several factors, including but not limited to rock properties, fluid characteristics and drilling operational parameters. Due to the diversity of affecting parameters, prediction of rate of penetration is a challenging task. There are various mathematical relations in the literature to estimate ROP. However, these relations are developed based on specific conditions, where data from a field or experimental tests are used to develop the relations. In this work, drilling data of three wells from one onshore oil fields are gathered and then the performances of some common ROP models are investigated. Results show that the simplified Bourgoyne and Young model can accurately predict the ROP in the mentioned field, which makes the model applicable for planning of the new offset wells in the future. It should be noted that the model requires fewer input data, which makes it more applicable. The results show the average R2 coefficient for the model is 0.91, which is higher than other models. The results confirmed the applicability of the model.