Ensemble species distribution modeling and multilocus phylogeography provide insight into the spatial genetic patterns and distribution dynamics of a keystone forest species, Quercus glauca

Abstract Background Forests are essential for maintaining species diversity, stabilizing local and global climate, and providing ecosystem services. Exploring the impact of paleogeographic events and climate change on the genetic structure and distribution dynamics of forest keystone species could help predict responses to future climate change. In this study, we combined an ensemble species distribution model (eSDM) and multilocus phylogeography to investigate the spatial genetic patterns and distribution change of Quercus glauca Thunb, a keystone of East Asian subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest. Results A total of 781 samples were collected from 77 populations, largely covering the natural distribution of Q. glauca. The eSDM showed that the suitable habitat experienced a significant expansion after the last glacial maximum (LGM) but will recede in the future under a general climate warming scenario. The distribution centroid will migrate toward the northeast as the climate warms. Using nuclear SSR data, two distinct lineages split between east and west were detected. Within-group genetic differentiation was higher in the West than in the East. Based on the identified 58 haplotypes, no clear phylogeographic structure was found. Populations in the Nanling Mountains, Wuyi Mountains, and the southwest region were found to have high genetic diversity. Conclusions A significant negative correlation between habitat stability and heterozygosity might be explained by the mixing of different lineages in the expansion region after LGM and/or hybridization between Q. glauca and closely related species. The Nanling Mountains may be important for organisms as a dispersal corridor in the west-east direction and as a refugium during the glacial period. This study provided new insights into spatial genetic patterns and distribution dynamics of Q. glauca .