制裁
反事实思维
经济制裁
人均
经济
控制(管理)
人口经济学
政治学
心理学
环境卫生
医学
人口
法学
社会心理学
管理
作者
Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
出处
期刊:Defence and Peace Economics
日期:2021-06-14
卷期号:33 (7): 767-778
被引量:14
标识
DOI:10.1080/10242694.2021.1941548
摘要
I use the synthetic control method to estimate the effect of international banking and energy sanctions from 2012 to 2015 on Iran's military spending. I created a counterfactual Iran, a synthetic control group, that mimics the socioeconomic characteristics of Iran before the international sanctions of 2012. Then I compare the military spending of the counterfactual Iran without sanctions to the factual Iran with sanctions for the period of 2003–2015. Over the entire 2013–2015 period, per capita military spending was reduced by approximately 117 US$ per year on average. The main findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests. Estimated confidence sets show that the decrease in Iran's military spending after the 2012 sanctions is also statistically significant.
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