Spatial-temporal patterns and influencing factors of ecological land degradation-restoration in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Despite the fact that urban agglomerations have undergone extensive ecological land coverage modifications, exploration of the patterns and driving mechanisms associated with ecological land degradation (ELD) and ecological land restoration (ELR) in urban agglomerations is still limited. This study combined remote sensing technology, as well as landscape index and geographical detector to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of ELD (isolating, adjacent, and enclosing degradation) and ELR (outlying, edge-expansion, and infilling restoration) in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 1990 to 2019. Subsequently, the contributions, interactions, and driver changes were quantified. The results showed an ecological land shift from over-exploitation to balanced co-existence, which was facilitated by a spatiotemporal pattern transition from adjacent degradation-led (1990–2010) to edge-expansion restoration-led (2010–2019). Land urbanization rate and population density showed a stronger promoting effect on ELD than natural factors, while tertiary industry, topography, and soil conditions were more significant in ELR. The factors' nonlinear interaction enhanced the degradation-restoration pattern evolution and continued to increase over time—particularly the interaction between construction land expansion and other drivers. Additionally, from 2010 to 2019, 80% of the ELR socio-economic factors turned from negative to positive and gradually became to play a significant role. This study is expected to help ecological protection and restoration planners/managers recognize the factors' interactions and variations, and ultimately improve the ecological network structure that is designed to integrate the city with the ecosystem.