Spillover effects of urbanization on carbon emissions: A global view from 2000 to 2019

An evident increase in carbon emissions (CEs) mainly caused by urbanization has aroused extensive concern. Insufficient research exists on the global impact of urbanization on CEs and their spillover effects. This study addresses this gap by investigating the spillover effects of urbanization on CEs. It employs bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial econometric models to analyze data for 125 countries from 2000 to 2019. The results showed that developed and major oil-exporting countries had higher per capita CEs than other countries; however, with a downward trend. The bivariate Moran's I index between urbanization level and per capita CEs reached a maximum of 0.403 in 2008 and then continuously decreased to 0.343 in 2019, to a certain extent, which indicates that the promoting effect of urbanization on CEs was weakening. The results of spatial econometric models presented an inverted U-shaped curve between global urbanization and per capita CEs, with a threshold of 68%. Furthermore, the findings revealed that an increase in proportion of added value of secondary and tertiary industries to gross domestic product (GDP), as well as an increase in per capita GDP, tended to be associated with higher per capita CEs. Conversely, an increase in population density may produce a decline in per capita CEs. Our study highlights the global impact of urbanization on CEs and underscores the importance of developing policies for sustainable urbanization and carbon emission reduction globally.