What Is a Meaningful Difference When Using Infarct Volume as the Primary Outcome?: Results From the HERMES Database

BACKGROUND: Ischemic stroke lesion volume at follow-up is an important surrogate outcome for acute stroke trials. We aimed to assess which differences in 48-hour lesion volume translate into meaningful clinical differences. METHODS: We used pooled data from 7 trials investigating the efficacy of endovascular treatment for anterior circulation large vessel occlusion in acute ischemic stroke. We assessed 48-hour lesion volume follow-up computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. The primary outcome was a good functional outcome, defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores of 0 to 2. We performed multivariable logistic regression to predict the probability of achieving mRS scores of 0 to 2 and determined the differences in 48-hour lesion volume that correspond to a change of 1%, 5%, and 10% in the adjusted probability of achieving mRS scores of 0 to 2. RESULTS: In total, 1665/1766 (94.2%) patients (median age, 68 [interquartile range, 57–76] years, 781 [46.9%] female) had information on follow-up ischemic lesion volume. Computed tomography was used for follow-up imaging in 83% of patients. The median 48-hour lesion volume was 41 (interquartile range, 14–120) mL. We observed a linear relationship between 48-hour lesion volume and mRS scores of 0 to 2 for adjusted probabilities between 65% and 20%/volumes <80 mL, although the curve sloped off for lower mRS scores of 0–2 probabilities/higher volumes. The median differences in 48-hour lesion volume associated with a 1%, 5%, and 10% increase in the probability of mRS scores of 0 to 2 for volumes <80 mL were 2 (interquartile range, 2–3), 10 (9–11), and 20 (18–23) mL, respectively. We found comparable associations when assessing computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging separately. CONCLUSIONS: A difference of 2, 10, and 20 mL in 48-hour lesion volume, respectively, is associated with a 1%, 5%, and 10% absolute increase in the probability of achieving good functional outcome. These results can inform the design of future stroke trials that use 48-hour lesion volume as the primary outcome.