The impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of Cacopsylla chinensis (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) in China

Abstract Cacopsylla chinensis is an oligophagous pest and has become one of the main pests that cause yield loss in commercial pear orchards in China. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution range of C. chinensis is crucial for its effectively preventing and managing. In this study, we collected 102 geographic distribution information of C. chinensis with 8 selected crucial environmental variables to simulate its potential suitable habitats. On this basis, the parameter-optimized maximum entropy model was utilized to predict the potential effect of future climate variation on its distribution, considering various socio-economic pathway scenarios and 3 Earth system models. The findings showed that the current total potential suitable area for C. chinensis was 578.29 × 104 km2, which accounts for 60.24% of China’s territory. In the total area, the suitability areas of low, medium, and high were 308.21 × 104 km2, 118.50 × 104 km2, and 151.58 × 104 km2, respectively. Among them, the high suitability areas are mainly distributed in Anhui, Beijing, Chongqing, Hebei, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Tianjin. Furthermore, our predictions suggest that the potentially suitable areas for this pest will increase by 8.49–35.02% under various future climate change conditions in China. The findings will be propitious to understand the linkage between C. chinensis niches and the relevant environment. It also provides valuable insights for developing future pest management strategies.