Chronic lung allograft dysfunction phenotype and prognosis by machine learning CT analysis

Background Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) is the principal cause of graft failure in lung transplant recipients and prognosis depends on CLAD phenotype. We used a machine learning computed tomography (CT) lung texture analysis tool at CLAD diagnosis for phenotyping and prognostication compared with radiologist scoring. Methods This retrospective study included all adult first double lung transplant patients (January 2010–December 2015) with CLAD (censored December 2019) and inspiratory CT near CLAD diagnosis. The machine learning tool quantified ground-glass opacity, reticulation, hyperlucent lung and pulmonary vessel volume (PVV). Two radiologists scored for ground-glass opacity, reticulation, consolidation, pleural effusion, air trapping and bronchiectasis. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to evaluate the diagnostic performance of machine learning and radiologist for CLAD phenotype. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis for allograft survival controlled for age, sex, native lung disease, cytomegalovirus serostatus and CLAD phenotype. Results 88 patients were included (57 bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS), 20 restrictive allograft syndrome (RAS)/mixed and 11 unclassified/undefined) with CT a median 9.5 days from CLAD onset. Radiologist and machine learning parameters phenotyped RAS/mixed with PVV as the strongest indicator (area under the curve (AUC) 0.85). Machine learning hyperlucent lung phenotyped BOS using only inspiratory CT (AUC 0.76). Radiologist and machine learning parameters predicted graft failure in the multivariable analysis, best with PVV (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.05–1.44; p=0.01). Conclusions Machine learning discriminated between CLAD phenotypes on CT. Both radiologist and machine learning scoring were associated with graft failure, independent of CLAD phenotype. PVV, unique to machine learning, was the strongest in phenotyping and prognostication.